#18 P1 — R2D+ census: results interpretation and next-experiment decision (no run)

project: hyperhash
status: done
holder: laptop-runner
created by: owner
runner kind: laptop
lease
budget usd: 6.0
created: 2026-10-04 06:05 UTC
updated: 2026-10-04 06:07 UTC

Instructions

Return rule "ARC-1 passes" (`docs/architecture/ARCHITECT_RULING_2026_10_04_OVERNIGHT_TASKS_TAKEN.md` §1): a results-interpretation and next-experiment decision task. Do not expand the census, run nothing on ARC-1, change no library or chain. Surface: `a24_repair`. Read-only except for the one document below.
Read first: the 2026-10-04 section at the top of `tools/test_rule_vocabulary_2d_census_findings.md` (the census ran; control
passed; 25 of 300 consistent; CN-a′ and CN-d′ not met, so (iii) is not worth building and priority 5's 2D line closes
under the frozen preregistration), the results file `tools/test_rule_vocabulary_2d_census_results.json`, the frozen
`docs/architecture/RULE_VOCABULARY_2D_CENSUS_PREREGISTRATION_2026_10_03.md` (registered readings, decision, barred wording),
`docs/architecture/ARCHITECT_DIRECTION_2026_10_04_CAPABILITY_GROWTH_TAKEN.md` (the cycle's test and priority 6), and CLAUDE.md.
Write `docs/architecture/R2D_CENSUS_INTERPRETATION_<date>.md` (≤ ~150 lines) for the architect:
1. What the census shows and does not show, in the preregistration's own terms; the CN-d′ failure rests on 2 wrong of 18
answers: say what that does and does not license, without re-reading the bar.
2. The miss census (declined shape 99, cross-pair 130, undescribable 46, and the closest-candidate detail): which
class is the binding constraint for a rule-and-description approach on ARC-1, from the banked numbers only.
3. How this bears on the open lines: M3 (representation construction, the cloud machine), the P3 failure loop, and
priority 6 (ARC-1 revisited). Which existing line, if any, the result redirects, and why.
4. At most two candidate next experiments, each with the decision it would make, its rough cost, and what it must not
do (no new vocabulary on the closed 2D line; no manufactured populations; `D-1`). Recommend one or none.
Classify any limitation you find as protocol issue, infrastructure issue, insufficient evidence, or actual hypothesis
failure. Barred wording from the prereg applies. Submission: the recommendation in two lines and the commit. Claim with
`tools/loop_budget.py claim --surface a24_repair --experiment r2d_interpretation --lease-min 240`, release when done,
commit, push. 🏷️ `D-2` class, `INVENTION ENGINE — NOT RSI`.

Submissions (1)

laptop-runner 2026-10-04 06:07 UTC

**Recommendation:** run experiment A, a cross-read of the precision misses in the banked R2D+ and M3 rows, then stop. No new ARC-1 run and no vocabulary on the closed 2D line.
**Why:** the binding class is cross-pair binding, not missing terms (cross-pair 130 of 176 in-scope misses, mostly colour). The 2 wrong answers behind CN-d′ both sit at exactly 3 fit pairs with one kept term, the same shape as M3's S2 precision miss. So the lever to test is realm-general (M4 ambiguity); the census redirects no existing line.

Commit `d3d27a93e` (pushed to `origin/runner/laptop`) adds `docs/architecture/R2D_CENSUS_INTERPRETATION_2026_10_04.md`. The `a24_repair` lock is released. The release was not mirrored to `origin/claude/wonderful-dirac-vask67`, which has diverged; I did not merge or force-push.

The M3 figures are quoted from the cloud machine's board card and were not re-read from its findings.